Sunday, December 2, 2007

Bay Area Trade Options

(AP) San Francisco Chronicle
Alex Rodriguez will remain a Yankee, and that's good news for general managers who can focus more on their immediate agendas and engage in more trade talk at this year's winter meetings.
For years, GMs complained that the winter meetings had become more about talking to agents than other teams. Trades became secondary, and the podium all too often was reserved for teams to announce free-agent signings rather than blockbuster trades.

Now, with Rodriguez out of the picture, along with fellow free agents Torii Hunter, Mike Lowell, Francisco Cordero, Curt Schilling, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Tom Glavine, Scott Linebrink and Jason Kendall - half of the 10 re-upping with their original teams - trade activity could be widespread in Nashville, where the four-day meetings begin Monday.

"There are more conversations than I've experienced in a while on the trade front for obvious reasons," said Giants GM Brian Sabean, citing how the trade market is far deeper than the free-agent market. "I think everyone's excited in the industry. I don't see a lot of organizations getting bogged down by agent meetings."

The top remaining free agents are center fielders Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, who'll miss the first 25 games next season after getting busted for using a banned stimulant, along with Barry Bonds. On the pitching side, Japan's Hiroki Kuroda, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Silva and Andy Pettitte, who might retire.

A thin market has gotten thinner, Hernandez's waistline notwithstanding.

As for trade talk, there's plenty of talent to go around, and a flurry of movement is expected once two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana and four-time All-Star Miguel Cabrera are dealt or deemed overly priced by all inquiring parties. For starters, the Yankees and Red Sox are after Santana, and the Angels and Dodgers keep pursuing Cabrera.

Santana can be a free agent after the 2008 season, Cabrera after 2009. Unlike Cabrera, who wants to test free agency in two years, Santana would receive an extension at the time of a trade; any team would demand one. So not only must a club consummate a trade, it must also negotiate a contract with Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, and guess why that's such a tricky proposition?

Barry Zito's contract.

Thanks to the Giants' willingness to hand Zito $126 million over seven years, a superior left-handed pitcher now wants far more. So much for being happy with "Roy Oswalt money." Oswalt received a $73 million, five-year contract 16 months ago. Now Santana's thinking is, "If Zito gets X, I deserve Y plus Z."

Zito's deal probably meant the end of Santana's career in Minnesota, and now he's heading to a bigger market, perhaps for $150 million over six years. The Twins need help after losing Torii Hunter to the Angels and would love to get outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox, who are offering a different outfielder, Coco Crisp, along with pitcher Jon Lester and a couple of prospects - but not Ellsbury or pitcher Clay Buchholz, who shined down the stretch for the champs. They for now appear untouchable.
The Yankees have a bundle of young players and are dangling pitchers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and outfielder Melky Cabrera, everyone but Joba Chamberlain. Once a deal is struck, the team would have a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension for Santana, who has a no-trade clause.

Though the Twins seem serious about moving Santana, the Marlins seem to be playing games with Cabrera. Sabean's suggestion that they might not be serious about a trade came after Angels owner Arte Moreno said the Marlins balked twice on trades by raising their demands at the last minute.

"They came back and asked for more," Moreno said. "They're doing it to everybody."
Sabean said, "There's a reason that one player hasn't been traded yet."

As with any marquee player, every big-market team wants a sniff, so count the Mets, Dodgers and Angels in on Santana, and the White Sox in on Cabrera. Sabean has downplayed interest in Cabrera if it means trading Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain.

Rest of the field: Already, Orlando Cabrera has been traded to the White Sox, Edgar Renteria to the Tigers, Jon Garland to the Angels, Brad Lidge to the Phillies, Delmon Young to the Twins and Lastings Milledge to the Nationals.

It's just the beginning.

The Giants and A's have similar dilemmas. They lack 3-4-5 hitters and are willing to fill holes by dealing starting pitching, but they'd take a big hit by parting with Lincecum or Cain or Dan Haren or Joe Blanton. Deeper teams keep such pitchers, but the Giants and A's are so desperate to upgrade their lineups that breaking up their rotations is conceivable.

Though most teams are looking to upgrade through trades, the Orioles appear set on cleaning house and starting over. That means not only dumping Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez, Brian Roberts and Daniel Cabrera, but their ace pitcher, Erik Bedard, who struck out 221 batters and is a free agent in two years. Before moving Bedard, the front office needs to be convinced it can't extend his contract.

The Dodgers reportedly expressed interest, and the Orioles would seek the same young studs (James Loney, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw) that the Marlins would want for Cabrera. The Orioles are more flexible on trading Tejada, who's due $26 million the next two seasons and could be converted from short to third for teams who don't land Cabrera.

One element to watch is how the new GMs make a splash. Angels newcomer Tony Reagins seems like he'll be much more active than predecessor Bill Stoneham. Pittsburgh's Neal Huntington began shopping Matt Morris about two minutes after taking over for Dave Littlefield, who actually took on the pitcher's entire contract from the Giants. St. Louis' John Mozeliak is faced with the possibility of dealing Scott Rolen.

Minnesota newcomer Bill Smith lost Hunter, dealt Matt Garza and is buried in Santana trade talk. If Santana is dealt, Smith could continue to break up the roster by trading closer Joe Nathan, and wouldn't it be fitting if Nathan were dealt to the Giants and Tejada to the A's, reuniting two players with the teams that let them go, much to the chagrin of the respective fan bases?

The Mariners will try to dump Richie Sexson (owed $14 million next year), who once interested the Giants, and Pirates outfielder Jason Bay remains attainable. The White Sox are dangling shortstop Juan Uribe after trading for Orlando Cabrera. The Phillies would want Mora if they don't have to pay his entire $8 million salary.

The Rockies are making former closer Brian Fuentes available after he lost his job to Manny Corpas, the Brewers are listening to offers for lefty Chris Capuano, and Dontrelle Willis is never far from any trade rumor.

Around the majors: Teams had to decide by 9 p.m. PDT on Saturday night whether to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became free agents. The deadline was largely unimportant because free agents can return to their former teams at any time. Before last year, players not offered arbitration couldn't re-sign with their former teams until May 1. ... Randy Wolf and the Padres agreed in principle to a one-year deal that would pay the left-hander about $9 million if he bounces back from shoulder surgery and meets all his performance bonuses. Wolf was with the Dodgers last season and didn't pitch after July 3 due to soreness in his left shoulder. He had surgery in September. ... Don't count the Giants out of the Kosuke Fukudome sweepstakes. Fukudome, 30, hit .351 with 31 homers and 104 RBIs in 2006 with the Chunichi Dragons and had elbow surgery this year, his numbers dipping to .294, 13 and 48.

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