There's no way out for the Giants. They literally can't win, whether or not they trade Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios. I'm all for a big-time gamble, especially for someone as desperate as general manager Brian Sabean, but this one just doesn't make sense.
First of all, assume under any scenario that the Giants finish last in the National League West. The Rockies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers are way out of their league (look for more key moves in L.A. in the wake of the Andruw Jones acquisition), and the Padres - 18 games up on San Francisco in the win column last year - have an edge in every category but the starting rotation. If the Giants give up Lincecum or Matt Cain, they lose that advantage, too.
Rios is going to be 27 years old next season, and while everyone recognizes him as a fine all-around player, his career numbers hardly jump off the page. Left alone without protection in the Giants' lineup, he'd likely to check in around .285 with 25 homers, 80-odd RBIs and a growing sense of frustration over teams pitching around him.
That's going to make a difference in the division? If the Giants felt they were one player away from contention, Rios would be a tremendous addition. Even if they followed up by sacrificing Noah Lowry and/or Jonathan Sanchez for the Yankees' Hideki Matsui, it would have no impact in the West. Matsui will turn 34, is coming off knee surgery, and while we're at it, why would Matsui even think of waiving his no-trade clause to play for a second-rate team in a ballpark that would diminish his home-run power?
Don't ask how the Giants improve the weakest lineup in baseball. Sabean and the Barry Bonds-obsessed ownership created that mess, and they'll need years to maneuver their way out of it. There's a lot to be said, though, for a club built around pitching, defense, hustle and belief. The Giants can get there in three or four years. Lincecum and Cain have to stay, and minor-league reports suggest there's help on the way.
According to Baseball America, the Giants had the fourth-best draft in the big leagues last June. Among high-school draftees, right-handed pitcher Tim Alderson was rated "closest to the majors" out of all positions. Madison Bumgarner was the hardest-throwing high school lefty, having hit 97 mph on the gun. There were high marks for relievers Steve Edlefsen (out of Nebraska) and Danny Otero (South Florida), both from short-season champion Salem-Keizer of the Northwest League. Maybe it all amounts to one gigantic rumor, but at least there's legitimate hope.
The Giants have a way - and one way only - to become a player in the National League. That's to assemble a staff full of lights-out pitchers. A highly impressive foundation is in place. Don't tear it down.
The Giants obviously need hitting. An opportunity was lost to enhance the team without giving up a front line pitcher by not signing Andruw Jones. Jones, by his defense alone would have benefited the staff, especially in AT&T Park. Rajai Davis demonstrated similar defensive ability in his 2007 audition after being acquired from Pittsburgh. The only apparent problem with Davis is his lack of power. As the team stands on December 8, 2007 there is a clear lack of power that is frightful for any Giant fan. The three, four and five holes still need filling. Is Matsui the answer? Only partially. Matsui, is an excellent clutch hitter. The fear of his being a left handed hitter and reduced power numbers by playing in San Francisco are overrated. Matsui is not exclusively a pull hitter. His runs batted in (rbi) ability will more than compensate for reduced home runs if that is the fear. Still, should the Giants acquire Matsui (who is ideal in the five hole), leave the Giants still needing a number three hole and clean-up hitter.
Pedro Feliz elected to forego arbitration and will now most probably move on. Feliz certainly has his liabilities, but defense is not one of them. The Giants are in need of a third sacker. Rumors persist that Scott Rolen would be a good fit with the Giants. Rolen, should he be healthy would fit the bill for the clean-up spot. The Giants could potentially acquire him without giving up Lincecum or Cain due in part to his relationship with Tony LaRussa. Health is the big issue with Rolen though. There is also speculation concerning Brandon Inge being a good fit for the Giants. Inge is known for his hustle and versatility. Inge's hitting is no better than Feliz, perhaps a bit less. The other potential answer would have been Miguel Tejada. Tejada has already been ruled out by Giants management. The third base position is a big concern. The Giants do not have a
player in the organization that is currently ready to assume Feliz' position. The future hope for the position is Angel Villalona. Villolona recently turned seventeen and finished the 2007 season at Salem-Keizer. He is probably at least three years away from being a major leaguer, if that. Perhaps, Rich Aurelia can stay healthy and fulfill the position this year with Kevin Frandsen. The short term answer is to acquire Rolen or Inge. At least that seems to have some merit in regard to improving the team's offense.
First base. Currently, Dan Ortmeier is penciled in to play first. Hopefully, he will come through. The Giants have a possible answer; again, drafted in 2007 and finished the season with Villalona. Andy D'alessio, drafted in the nineteeth round out of Clemson University impressed with his play at first base. In the Arizona League he hit .308, pounded 14 homers, and had 51 rbi in 49 games. At Salem-Keizer he hit .556 with two more home runs and 8 rbi in four games. D'alessio was drafted higher in the two previous drafts, but elected to stay on at Clemson. He was limited at Clemson due to nagging injuries in the 2007 collegiate season causing his apparent value to slip in the draft. Once again, he is at least three years away providing he continues to improve and isn't limited by injuries.
Randy Winn can probably handle the three hole, but the last two seasons have demonstrated he is more effective batting in the two hole and is a solid player.
Brian Sabean and his staff have serious work to do. Advise, keep the strength and heart of the rotation and resist trading Lincecum or Cain. This is not going to be easy, but it needs to be done. Alex Rios is a star, but not worth a player of Lincecum's potential.
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